A Watershed Moment
This has been an event I have anticipated will happen soon or maybe it has already occured. It is an event that could determine the course of future events both economic and political. From a personal standpoint I feel vindicated after earlier this morning as I was watching the business news on the ABC. In this interview the reporter quotes a source, the name of which I forget, that states if the U.S. went into recession it would only effect 1% of Chinese GDP.
This is the event: The transfer of US economic dominance to China, and to a certain degree India and some other consortium of third world developing nations.
According to this news interview there has been a disengagement of a reliance of the chinese economy from the US. Likewise, I believe that it is only a matter of time that the chinese economy becomes, to a certain degree, self-sufficient not from a desmestic standpoint but in terms of trade and investments from neighbouring asian nations, demand from Europe and especially from the natural resources it has been buying up and securing for itself in Africa and South America to sustain the growth of its economy. It has always been my anticipation that there would be some sort of a defining moment that would usher in this transition, a violent tearing away of reliance and dependence on the US economy towards China. As current events and forcasts prove, I am probably wrong and that this Watershed Moment has already occured, all that needs to happen now is for the underlying fundamentals to prove itself practically in international trade and investments.
This is a concern to me given the imperialistic, I believe imperialistic would be the right word here, bias culturally as well as historically of P.R.C. In relation to issue like taiwan and human rights, if the U.S. were to see their stature, “prestige” and moral authority decline then powers like China and Russia could usher in a new era of socialist and dictatorial “overtures” both in geopolitical and economic relations. But I digress. This, however, would be a point of discussion for my next post.
I view this event to be of great importance and encourage all participants to express thier views without inhibitions.
Here I would state my first forcast: Watch out for a greater decline, relatively, of the US dollar early next year!
Again I would like to exhort all fellow participants to know the will of God for their lives and to live it with intent, seizing every opportunity to further His kingdom because of the urgency of the times we are living in.
AW
December 2, 2007
haha man i would comment if you would just use simple english ambrose wong..
if i actually understood what you were trying to say!
Tim
December 5, 2007
What is so hard about that Tim? You know what, I think you’re too fussy…Yes I think you are. Nothing is good enough hehe
From my “standpoint” everything looks fine…
The point I am trying to make in my article is that I believe that US economical dominance has shifted to China. This is the watershed moment I am reffering to albeit a quiet and inconspicuous one.
AW
December 5, 2007
Do you know the significance of this? This means that the balance of power has now shifted. Just like the downfall of the Roman Empire. One reason for its collapse is because of its fall as an economic power first even to the point where parts of the roman consituent were willing to come under the rule of barbarians instead of the rule of rome herself-I believe this statement to be from the book: wealth of nations by Adam Smith.
It is all about historical perspective here history will repeat itself and with China Russia holding the balance power both at the UN and regionally one can only imagine the course of events that could take place in the not distant future.
AW
December 5, 2007
Last things first… everyone’s predicting the US dollar to fall a bit. (Which if you look at history probably means the USD is about to kick everything’s ass.)
As to your post Ambrose you seem to be saying that there’s an economic transition from USA to China. I still think that China needs the USA more than the USA needs China. There’s any number of countries that can become manufacturers of cheap stuff. It used to be Japan, now it’s China, next is….
India? Africa?
Just because of its sheer size one can foresee China becoming the world’s #1 economy, from what I’ve heard this will happen in the next decade or so.
Mat
December 6, 2007
Mat you seem to be saying that China needs the US more than vice versa and at the same time stating that China will be the world’s number one economy are you agreeing with me at least for the long term?
I won’t go so far as saying that China won’t need the US. As for now I am saying that China has crossed a line where it is already self-sufficient to the point that if the US were to go into a recession, China could still grow at a decent rate (GDP).
Concerning India… I believe that if it were a candidate for cheap manufactures, it would have already claimed that reputation many years ago. Instead India has gone down the path of outsourced IT services and cheap labor/services more than cheap products.
Here I would like to my economic observation:
Socialist societies will always have cheap goods as a result of cheap labor. When compared with a democratic society, the population with a greater degree of control over their education and life choices will always move towards producing high valued services and talent pools
As for Africa, with its wars, factions racism and almost an “intentionality” to economic mismanagement, there is hardly any prospects unless something dramtically changes within the “spirit” of the continent.
Its always an encouragement to hear from you Mr Mat!
Amb
December 7, 2007